The regime of Kim Jong Un has already conducted eighteen missile tests this year. South Korea reported this week that Pyongyang may test another intercontinental ballistic missile within days. If the Trump Administration chose to thwart a missile test now or in the future, former generals and military analysts told me, North Korea is likely to retaliate, possibly escalating tensions into open warfare and unleashing weaponry Pyongyang feared it might otherwise lose in U.
The second possible scenario would be North Korea initiating military action because of fears or signals that the United States is close to an attack. The signals could range from small steps, such as Washington pulling out diplomatic dependents from South Korea, to major actions, such as deploying more military aircraft, equipment, personnel, or even nuclear weapons in the South. Fiery rhetoric from both sides has escalated tensions over the past month.
They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen. The only deal Kim might now consider is a freeze—and at a heavy price from the West, which the White House seems unwilling to negotiate. If war erupted, the first phase would likely play out for at least a month, and possibly many weeks more. Luck, the former commander of both U. North Korea has almost 1.
Partly because there is still no formal end to the last Korean War, only an armistice, the United States has about twenty-eight thousand troops deployed in South Korea, with tens of thousands more in the U. Pacific Command. In the end, North Korea would lose a war, the generals and military analysts say. Suh told reporters on Monday he planned to discuss South Korean President Moon Jae-in's proposal for a formal end to the Korean War and for possible easing of sanctions on North Korea, Yonhap news agency reported.
A White House statement on the meeting said Sullivan stressed the need for North Korea "to refrain from escalatory actions" and reaffirmed support for inter-Korean dialogue and cooperation.
A senior official of the U. Last week the two Koreas restored their hotlines that North Korea severed months ago, with Pyongyang urging Seoul to step up efforts to improve relations after criticising what it called double standards over weapons development. Kim said Seoul's "unrestricted and dangerous" efforts to strengthen its military were "destroying the military balance in the Korean peninsula and increasing military instability and danger".
The Biden administration is reportedly completing its new strategy for how to handle the dangerous, nuclear-armed dictatorship of Kim Jong Un in North Korea. Addressing that threat is a daunting task. Michael E.
Reportedly, one message Obama conveyed was to watch out for North Korea. He called North Korea part of the axis of evil and threatened tough measures. Trump eventually failed as well. He tried the threat of war and tough UN sanctions in , then summitry and sweet talk in and early , then a hard line until he left office. But North Korea kept on building more bombs all the while, and talks collapsed. At least there has not been a war — which could literally kill millions, including tens of thousands of Americans, in densely populated and highly militarized Northeast Asia.
And North Korea has not tested nuclear weapons or long-range missiles since The prospect of ending a more than year war on the Korean peninsula has been the hope of this administration in Seoul for nearly 5 years.
But President Moon is running out of time. His successor will be elected in March. He took a gamble on meeting Kim Jong-un and holding his hand on the sacred summit of Mount Paektu. But since then, relations between the two Koreas have soured. North Korea even blew up an office which was purpose built to house talks between the two sides. It looked like all hope of peace talks were over. But here we are, another small sliver of hope breaking through in the form of a statement from Kim Yo-jong.
Note all the caveats and pre-conditions.
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